In the wake of the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump over the weekend, political forecasters say the landscape headed into the November 2024 general election has shifted dramatically — and polling will soon reflect those changes.
“The bulk of voters who will determine this election usually aren’t tuned in 113 days out. They are now,” founder and president of Cygnal, a top polling and analytics firm said Monday morning.
“What they’ll see is a feeble incumbent and a resolute challenger. These disengaged voters are much more likely to relate to Trump’s strength vs Biden’s weakness — and this week’s speeches at the RNC Convention will set the tone for Republicans looking to boost turnout come November.”
The bulk of voters who will determine Nov 5 usually aren't tuned in 113 days out. They are now. What they'll see is a feeble incumbent & a resolute challenger. These disengaged voters are much more likely to relate to Trump's strength vs Biden's weakness.https://t.co/twAvrBgfjp
— Brent Buchanan, Pollster (@brentbuc) July 15, 2024
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Recent polls indicate that President Biden is trailing former President Trump in virtually all battleground states, including Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Also according to Cygnal, following the first presidential debate, 64% of battleground district voters agree Joe Biden should not seek reelection and allow another candidate to seek the Democratic nomination. This includes 57% of those who voted for Biden in 2020. Trump was overwhelmingly seen as the winner (54%) compared to only 10% who thought Biden won the debate.
The Republican National Convention, currently underway in Milwaukee, will keep Donald Trump top-of-mind for voters throughout the week, as top officials and surrogates make their case for electing Republicans up and down the ticket.
Grayson Everett is the state and political editor for Yellowhammer News. You can follow him on X @Grayson270
