Pollster: Alabama voters want conservatives, not just Republicans

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. — According to a year-long Gallup survey of 177,000 Americans, Alabama is the 6th most Republican state in the country.

Here are the 10 most Republican states, and the percentage of people in them who self-identify as Republican.

1. Utah 59.0%
2. Wyoming 58.6%
3. Idaho 51.8%
4. South Dakota 50.8%
5. Montana 50.5%
6. Alabama 48.8%
7. Kansas 47.9%
8. North Dakota 46.8
9. Tennessee 46.7%
10. Nebraska 48.5%

Some Alabamians may be surprised to see the Yellowhammer State several spots down the list, especially after Alabama voters in recent years elected only Republicans to statewide office, as well as GOP supermajorities in both chambers of the Legislature.

But well-known pollster Jim McLaughlin, of the New York-based opinion research firm McLaughlin and Associates, says it is more important to understand the ideological makeup of the Alabama electorate than it is to understand its partisan makeup.

In short, Alabama is home to a lot of Republicans, but it’s home to even more conservatives.

“I tell Alabama Republicans that it is more important to be a conservative in Alabama than it is to be a Republican, Democrat or Independent,” McLaughlin told Yellowhammer Thursday. “The largest segment of voters in Alabama are self-described conservatives, not Democrats, Republicans or Independents.”

Another Gallup poll from 2013 illustrates McLaughlin’s point exactly.

According to the survey, Alabama has the country’s highest percentage of conservatives, beating out Wyoming and North Dakota, who tied for second, by two percentage points. In fact, over half (50.6%) of Alabamians self-identify as conservatives, roughly 3% more than the number who identify themselves as Republicans.

And according to a trend that escalated when President Obama was first elected in 2008, Alabama — along with every other state in the country, except Alaska — is more conservative now than it was at the time of that survey, as illustrated by the gif below. (h/t WaPo)

McLaughlin said Alabama’s sky-high — and growing — percentage of conservatives has caused the state’s traditionally liberal interest groups to adjust their tactics.

“Conservatives outnumber liberals in Alabama by better than 3 to 1,” he explained. “It’s why the AEA (Alabama Education Association) runs a bunch of fake Republicans in GOP primaries. They know they lose on issues and ideology in the general elections.”

But with the state’s next Legislative races almost four years away, one of the next batches of candidates to face the increasingly conservative Alabama electorate will be running for a little bit higher office — President of the United States.

Alabama officials are maneuvering with other southern states to make the region a more significant player in the 2016 primaries. They are proposing an “SEC Primary” in which numerous southeastern states would hold their elections on the same day, thereby forcing candidates to pay more attention to deep red states, like Alabama.

Politico explains:

Officials in five Southern states — Tennessee, Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama and Arkansas — are coordinating to hold their primary on March 1, 2016. Texas and Florida are considering also holding a primary the same day but may wait until later in the month. Either way, March 1 would be a Southern Super Tuesday, voting en masse on the heels of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

The joint primary, which appears increasingly likely to happen, would present a crucial early test for Republican White House hopefuls among the party’s most conservative voters.

When those candidates do come to court Alabama voters in 2016, they’ll be smart to pay attention to the polling data and realize it takes a lot more than an “R” beside their name to win the state’s 9 electoral votes.