A new poll of likely Alabama Republican primary voters shows the race to replace U.S. Senator Tommy Tuberville is locked in a three-way statistical tie.
According to the poll, now exactly 50 days out from the May 19 primary election day, 35% of voters are still undecided.
The Alabama Poll, conducted by Michael Lowry this month, surveyed 600 likely Republican primary voters and carries a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points.
U.S. Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) leads at 22.8%, followed by Attorney General Steve Marshall at 20.7% and former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson of Birmingham at 19.0%.
All three candidates fall within the poll’s margin of error.
With 34.5% of voters firmly undecided, and no candidate approaching the majority required to win the party nomination outright, a runoff between the top two finishers on June 16 appears increasingly likely.
Moore, a third-term congressman and member of the House Freedom Caucus, picked up steam quickly after announcing his bid in the fall, including a January endorsement from President Donald Trump and more than $6 million in outside spending committed to his campaign.
The poll shows that spending has not yet separated him from the field.
The Alabama Poll’s geographic crosstabs show Marshall with net favorability advantages in media markets covering roughly 78% of the likely primary electorate, including Birmingham, Huntsville, and Mobile.
Hudson is a former U.S. Navy SEAL, owner of The Shooting Institute, a Birmingham-based tactical firearms training company, and the founder of Covenant Rescue Group, a nonprofit that actively combats human trafficking.
The GOP nominee for Sheriff of Jefferson County in 2022, Hudson has climbed steadily from 7% in August 2025, to his current position in a three-way dead heat.
The poll also tested endorsement effects among likely primary voters.
A generic Trump endorsement moved voters toward a candidate by a net of 34 points in March 2026, down from a net of 47 points when first tested in August 2025.
Lowry attributed the decline not to weakening Trump support — the president’s job approval among likely Republican primary voters stands at 82.3% — but to a natural shift in primary dynamics as voters move from evaluating the endorser to evaluating the candidate.
Alabama requires a candidate to win a majority of primary votes to claim the nomination.
If no candidate clears 50% on May 19, the top two finishers advance to a runoff on June 16.
Sawyer Knowles is a capitol reporter for Yellowhammer News. You may contact him at [email protected].
