According to a new poll from Cygnal, after a tumultuous six weeks, the 2024 presidential race has returned to a state of stasis, with former President Donald Trump and the Republican Party maintaining a slight edge.

The former president continues to hold a major advantage on issues most important to Independent voters. On illegal immigration, Trump leads by 18 points among Independents, he also holds a lead on the cost of living and inflation (+7) as well as the economy and jobs (+6).

The general political environment has tightened according to their analysis, but despite the doomsday prognosis from the media, Republicans retain an +1 advantage on the generic congressional ballot. Both candidates have seen improvements in their public image. Trump’s net favorability reaching its highest point this year (46% favorable – 52% unfavorable) and Harris with a 20-point swing in net favorability since early July (47% favorable – 50% unfavorable).

Pollster Chris Lane said that while Vice President Kamala Harris has gained support from traditional Democratic voters, she still faces major challenges.

“The idea that Kamala Harris came into this race and Independents and moderates stumbled over each other to support her is simply not the case. The truth is traditional Democrat voters simply started to indicate they are going to vote for the Democratic Presidential candidate, a not so shocking revelation,” Lane said.

Biden had such a low floor that it was hard to believe that could last. At the same time, Harris faces challenges solidifying her support with 13 percent of 2020 Biden voters saying they do not consider themselves part of her base and a whopping 71 percent of likely voters perceiving Harris as ‘liberal’ versus only 15 percent who view her as ‘moderate’. That label will push away Independent voters while Trump maintains the edge on the issues voters care about most – the economy, cost of living, and illegal immigration.”

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Trump’s base remains slightly larger than Harris’, with 45% of voters identifying with Trump’s camp compared to 44% for Harris. Trump draws stronger support from men and rural voters, while Harris has a slight edge among Independents.

Despite Harris’ consolidation of Democratic support, 13% of Biden’s 2020 voters do not consider themselves part of her base. A whopping 71% of likely voters perceive Harris as ‘liberal’, while only 15% view her as ‘moderate’.

Former President Joe Biden continues to face low favorability ratings following his exit from the presidential race, with his net favorability standing at -20, near record lows.