The Yellowhammer State continues to see an increase in confirmed coronavirus (COVID-19) cases on the heels of Gov. Kay Ivey ordering stay-at-home conditions on Friday.
However, the current COVID-19 data for Alabama has, so far, run under the numbers projected by a model often cited by government officials across the country including the Trump Administration.
As of 6:00 a.m. Saturday morning, Alabama had 38 reported deaths resulting from COVID-19, according to the Alabama Department of Public Health.
The total number of confirmed cases has now reached 1,535. Jefferson County has the most confirmed cases in the state with 369.
The total number of cases and deaths has fallen short of what was projected by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. IHME has sought to forecast, with advanced metrics, the amount of hospital beds needed to treat COVID-19 and the daily totals of deaths resulting from the virus.
IHME’s predictions made on April 1 had placed Alabama at having 25 deaths per day by Friday, April 3 and suffering 5,516 total deaths by August.
Its projected toll on the state’s healthcare system was a need for 6,103 hospital beds, including 1,349 ICU beds.
Currently, 189 people have been hospitalized as a result of COVID-19.
IHME is set to update its projections today. The organization describes its methodology as follows:
Our model is designed to be a planning tool, and is informed by the shape that other COVID-19 outbreaks are taking, in terms of deaths, around the world and across the US…our model is designed to specifically address the planning needs of hospital administrators and local governments.
Tim Howe is an owner of Yellowhammer Multimedia
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