Cygnal pollster John Rogers: Democrats have scrambled to compete in Alabama's 2nd District, razor-thin margins expected in battleground states

Pollster for Washington-based Cygnal Intelligence and former Alabama political operative, John Rogers, provided insight on the pivotal factors that may influence the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. He also appraised Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District contest as a race that Democrats nationally had to pour more money into than initially expected.

Rogers painted a picture in an interview with ”Capitol Journal” of an election that could be decided by razor-thin margins and last-minute shifts in voter turnout among highly targeted groups.

Rogers walked through the seven battleground states and the math needed to win. Rogers affirmed that the seven battleground states — Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina — hold the keys to the White House.

“[You] think about the last two Republican presidents, obviously, George W. Bush did not win the popular vote in 2000 neither did Trump in 2016, yet both were able to win the electoral college and therefore win the presidency. And so, Republicans have had an advantage in the electoral college just because of the way that votes are spread across the country. But what is interesting is I think that Trump, because of his appeal, more and more to some working class voters in states like New York, not in like New York City, but in kind of areas outside of New York that is probably meaning that votes are more broadly dispersed for Trump and his coalition than maybe even in 2016 or in 2000 with Bush.”

“[I] would say that Harris likely needs to win the popular vote to win the electoral college. It is very difficult to imagine a scenario where Kamala Harris lost the popular vote, but won the electoral college. But you could imagine the inverse happening again, as in 2016 where Trump might lose the popular vote by a point or two, but is able to win a majority of those battleground states. Is able to win Georgia back, hold on to North Carolina, and then also be able to win to Pennsylvania and then get to 270.”

Another fiercely contested election on Tuesday’s ballot, Alabama’s newly-redrawn 2nd Congressional District, Rogers says the district was initially expected to lean Democratic but, the race has grew unexpectedly competitive — forcing national Democrats to redirect major resources to support Figures’ campaign.

“It’s an incredibly competitive race, and I think that that was unexpected for the Democrats. This is a district that I think a lot of national Democrats thought that they were going to walk away with. But Caroleene Dobson, her team, have run a really solid campaign, and Democrats, national Democrats, have had to pour a lot more money into this race than I think that they expected if you went back to the summertime,” Rogers said.

“So there is not really been any high-quality public polling that has been out there — but this is a district that Kay Ivey won in 2022 when she ran for governor. So I think that, you know, it’s a tight race from all appearances, and I think that what we really come down to is whether or not Shomari Figures is able to get a really high turnout of rural African American voters in order to win the district. But I think it’s a very competitive district as we come down to the final days.”

Grayson Everett is the state and political editor for Yellowhammer News. You can follow him on X @Grayson270