The Alabama Crimson Tide is just days away from kicking off the Kalen DeBoer era in Tuscaloosa.

While it’s going to be strange for a while not seeing Nick Saban on the sidelines, the feeling among Alabama fans across the globe certainly feels like one more of excitement than sadness as DeBoer gets set to begin his first year.

However, the new head coach at the University of Alabama will have to be careful as he navigates the season, as there is an ugly trend among the last six Alabama coaches even including Nick Saban that he will have to avoid.

Revealed in a statistic shared by ‘CFB Kings’, five of the last six coaches at Alabama have lost to a Group of 5 team in their first season in Tuscaloosa. Saban infamously lost 21-14 to Louisiana-Monroe in 2007 en route to a 7-6 record in year one, but the trend goes a lot further back than that.

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Before Saban, Mike Shula lost 19-16 to Northern Illinois at home during his first season in 2003. Only Dennis Franchione, who left Alabama for Texas A&M after two seasons, was immune from the black stain of a Group of 5 loss among the last six Tide coaches. 

Before Franchione, Mike DuBose lost to Louisiana Tech by a score of 26-20 at home in his first season in 1997, while Gene Stallings before him also lost at Bryant-Denny to Southern Miss by a score of 27-24 in 1990.

Finally, going all the way back to 1987, Bill Curry lost to Memphis on the road by a score of 13-10.

In 2024 under Kalen DeBoer, Alabama will play in three of these matchups. The first is the opener this weekend against Western Kentucky, the second is next week against South Florida, and the third is on November 16 against Mercer.

It would be a spectacular upset if the Tide were to somehow lose one of these three home games, but DeBoer must not rest on his laurels.

It’s happened before, it could happen again.