Rumors & Rumblings

“Rumors and Rumblings” is a weekly feature that runs each Wednesday. It includes short nuggets of information that we glean from conversations throughout the week. Have a tip? Send it here. All sources remain confidential.

Wiregrass Senate Maneuvering

Two weeks ago in Rumors & Rumblings we discussed rumors that Dothan Young Republicans Chairman Brandon Shoupe is considering a run for State Senate in District 29. Since that post we’ve had a flood of calls about the potential candidates who could unseat Sen. Harri Anne Smith.

Some Dothan-area political insiders told Yellowhammer that while Shoupe has a big future ahead of him, his name recognition in the community may not have quite reached the the point where he would a viable candidate to take on Smith.

Dothan businessman George Flowers, who was beaten by Smith in 2010, is said to still be mulling over whether or not to run in 2014.

But the potential candidate who is garnering some early enthusiasm from the wiregrass Republican faithful is Houston County Commissioner Melinda McClendon.

“She took on four candidates in the primary and won without a runoff,” a Dothan-area Republican told Yellowhammer. “She would be a formidable candidate. George Flowers would probably give some consideration to jumping in behind her rather than running himself. That’s how highly we all think of her.”

Smith has not yet announced her intentions for 2014. She has one of the poorest attendance records in the Senate and speculation around the State House is that she’s at least considering leaving the legislature after this term — her fourth.

“Smith and [Jimmy] Holley (R-Elba) are big buddies,” a lobbyist told Yellowhammer Monday morning. “They’re both thinking about hanging it up after this quadrennium.”

If they were both to leave, the wiregrass area senate delegation would look drastically different in 2015 after a decade and a half of stability.

Another Republican eyeing secretary of state

Former Montgomery County Probate Judge Reese McKinney is making the rounds, testing the waters for a possible run for Secretary of State. Joe Reed’s Democrat political machine unseated McKinney in his bid for a third term in 2012. He was one of the last remaining Republicans in a deep blue county.

McKinney is highly thought of in Republican circles. he would start with an established electoral and fundraising base. He raised half a million dollars for a probate judge’s race. That makes him a formidable candidate in a lower ballot statewide race like Secretary of State. McKinney’s niece is U.S. Representative Martha Roby, so he would likely benefit some from her network as well.

Crenshaw County Probate Judge, and new Republican, Jim Perdue is said to still be angling for a potential run, too. And State Representative John Merrill remains the only official entrant into the race. Merrill has been beating the bushes statewide working to shore up early support.

Top Tax & Spender eyeing mayoral race?

The legislature’s top tax & spender, Democrat Rep. Joe Hubbard, has found himself in a tough spot. With Montgomery’s population shrinking, his House district will be eliminated in 2014.

A lot of folks in Montgomery have speculated that Hubbard might make a run at Rep. Jay Love’s seat. Hubbard has taken numerous opportunities to take shots at Rep. Love at the mic on the House floor since the new district lines were revealed.

But one insider told Yellowhammer over the weekend that Hubbard is now weighing a possible run for mayor of Montgomery instead.

“He knows he can’t beat Representative Love,” the insider said. “Jay has too much money and his name ID is too high. That’s made him take a look at mayor. But to be honest, that’s just about as crazy as taking on Love.”

On the flip side, sources say Montgomery Mayor Todd Strange is not going to seek reelection, so it will likely be an open seat.

One more day to go

All eyes will be on the Senate on the final day of the 2013 legislative session. Here are a few things that insiders are watching:

1. With both budgets already passed, there is no longer a need to pass a Budget Isolation Resolution before tackling a bill. But when it gets right down to it, how much work actually gets done on Monday will depend on whether or not Senate Rs and Ds come to an agreement to work together. Lobbyists will be pressuring both sides to work things out, but it won’t be easy.

There are almost 100 local bills and sixty confirmations pending in the Senate. How did it get to that point? Without getting too far down into the weeds, Senate Republicans made a decision early in the session with regard to Sunset bills that spread them out over weeks rather than just hammering through them in a few days. It’s debatable whether that was a good or bad idea, but it prevented them from pursuing the regular order of business which is designed to make the process work.

The result is that House messages, committee reports, confirmations and local bills all got backed up to the point that there are a ton of them left and barely any time left to pass them.

As a result, Democrats now have a pretty significant amount of leverage. It will be interesting to see how both Republicans and Democrats respond to the pressure that will be on them to get some work done on the final day.

2. Anybody who has a bill left that they’re trying to pass is concerned with the governor saying he may send the Accountability Act back for a third go-round. That would burn a lot of time in both houses.

3. Sen. Bryan Taylor’s campaign finance reform bill will likely be sent to conference committee where it will be tweaked before final passage in both Houses. The PAC to PAC transfer tweaks are one portion of the bill that is expected to be taken out. The AEA hates this bill with a passion and will be maneuvering to block it if at all possible.

4. The Omnibus Gun bill has one more hurdle to clear before heading to the Governor. The House should get it out with no problem. There are only about forty bills on the House calendar, roughly ten of which are local bills. The House appears to be in pretty good shape to sprint to the finish line.

Richard Shelby one-on-one

Yellowhammer spent some time late last week with Senator Richard Shelby discussing his economic vision for the state of Alabama. Be on the lookout in the next few days for an exclusive write up of our conversation.

What else is going on?
1. Luther Strange weighs actions over IRS-tea party scandal
2. Campaign finance reform to get a shot on last day of session
3. Media bias laid bare
4. Roby Makes Her Move
5. IRS Admits to Targeting Conservative Groups