A who’s who of Alabama business and political power players converged at the Sheraton Hotel in downtown Birmingham Tuesday night for the annual Business Council of Alabama Chairman’s dinner featuring keynote speaker Jeb Bush.
Bush, a former governor of Florida known in political circles as a policy wonk with a passion for education reform, has been the focus of intense speculation over the last several months as a possible 2016 presidential candidate.
As the Republican establishment’s fascination with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie waned in the wake of “Bridgegate,” Bush became their candidate of choice. And while his budding private sector career and family concerns may give him genuine pause about jumping into the 2016 race, his famous last name — simultaneously his greatest asset and most burdensome liability — and the power for reform held by the nation’s highest office may goad him off the sidelines and back into the game.
On Tuesday night, Alabama’s business community got a sneak peek at what a Bush presidential candidacy might look and sound like.
Yellowhammer was on hand, and based on what we heard during Bush’s 30-minute speech and 15-minute question and answer time, we believe a Jeb Bush presidential candidacy would make every attempt to be:
1. Aspirational
A better descriptor for this may actually be “anti-pessimism.” But whatever you call it, the single biggest takeaway from Bush’s speech Thursday night was that he believes the United States is in a similar position psychologically to where it was in the late 1970s — unsure of itself and in desperate need of a leader who can help it snap out of this latest “crisis of confidence.”
Key speech excerpt:
Why is it that America today is so deeply pessimistic about the future? Every poll shows it… 65 to 70 percent of Americans say we’re on the wrong track. A significant majority of Americans for the first time in American history think their children will have less opportunity than what they had… This pessimism makes it hard for us to do what we do best as a country, which is to embrace the future and not to be fearful of it, but to embrace it and to create and mold it in our own shape… So what’s the solution to this dilemma, because this is a serious thing. Americans don’t do pessimism well. I yearn for the day that Europeans used to kind of look down their noses at us and say, ‘You Yanks are naively optimistic.’ Yea, I like that. I like being optimistic… If you embrace the future, you’re not fearful of it and you create policies around making sure that people can achieve success. So what’s the solution to this deep pessimism that exists? I think it’s to create an environment where there is sustained economic growth, where more people than those who have already made it can achieve earned success.
2. Unifying
Bush opened is speech Tuesday night by focusing heavily on his family background, and not just by praising his Dad — who he called his “inspiration” — and his brother — to whom he said history would be “very kind” — but also by explaining the Bush clan’s diverse cultural makeup.
Here’s how he got the conversation started by speaking about his grandkids:
They are what you would call, if you were thinking about this from a political angle, Texas-Mexican-Canadian-Iraqi-Americans. They’re quadra-hyphenated American. Sandra, my daughter-in-law, was born in Canada. Her parents are Iraqi nationals who moved to Toronto. My wife is from Mexico. I’m from the Republican of Texas and a Floridian by choice. So at home I have this precious creature who is trilingual at the age of three. And when she turns 21, she will start a movement when she has to fill out the census form by saying ‘not applicable’ as it relates to race and ethnicity, which I think will be a pretty darn good idea and we ought to start today.
It’s a compelling backstory that has given many Republicans a reason to believe that a Bush candidacy could draw votes from the U.S.’s booming Hispanic population, as his brother did before him. And after President Obama’s campaign promises of racial unity were crushed under the weight his penchant for racial politics, a credible unifying message would probably be well-received by voters.
But Bush also uses the same story as the foundation for his pitch for so called comprehensive immigration reform, which is anathema to much of the conservative base. So while the unifying language will be well-received across the board, how it’s put to use will determine how powerful it is, especially in a Republican primary.
Key speech excerpt:
We’re all Americans. We seem to be focused on dividing ourselves into our disparate parts rather than thinking of ways that we can be unified and my little precious [grandchildren] will hopefully be part of a movement to restore the sense of what it is to be an American.
3. Reform-focused
Entitlement reform, tax reform, energy reform, regulatory reform, education reform, immigration reform.
Bush was admittedly unsure whether he could be the aspirational leader America needs, but he was supremely confident in his ability to reform, well, pretty much everything.
Key speech excerpts:
Entitlement reform —
We need to urgently reform our entitlement system… Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security will overwhelm everything else… So we need to be thinking on a long-term basis about how this will crowd out the ability for government to do the things that it should do, which is to provide for a strong defense, build the infrastructure for the 21st century and the research and development that will create the next generation of industries.
Tax reform —
We need a tax system that is simpler and lower so that we get the maximum revenue without deterring economic activity. Today, we are far from that. We have the most complex tax code… It certainly doesn’t help create jobs and economic growth… We have the highest (corporate taxes) in the world, and job opportunities are lessened because of that… Economic freedom will create far more economic growth than outsourcing decisions to the progressives in government to make decisions for us.
Energy reform —
(We need) a ‘patriotic energy policy‘ based on North American resources and American innovation, ingenuity and technology… We need to strategically use our energy resources in a way that creates more income for more people.
Regulatory reform —
We need a wholesale review of our regulations, which are too uncertain, incredibly costly, and too cumbersome… Business startups are at an all-time low in modern history because the person who has the desire, grit and determination and the great idea is stifled from the beginning because of the extraordinary costs and complexity of regulation.
Education reform —
Robust accountability, ending social promotion, school choice, high standards… all of those things will increase student achievement. And if you don’t get this right, no amount of improving our business climate of rules, taxes… all of those things will subside unless we decide that in this great country, it doesn’t matter what zip code you were born in, it doesn’t matter the level of income of your family, you will be able to pursue the American dream just as your parents and your grandparents and your great-grandparents did. We have to get education right and if we do, this country will soar.
Immigration reform —
(This is) a little more controversial in some places and, for the life of me, I don’t get it. We have a broken immigration system and it doesn’t work. It was designed in a different era… If you want to create an economically-driven immigration system you need to create one where you can take the people that can create economic activity from the get-go… (but the current system instead) has family reunification at the core of it.
4. Wonkish
Jeb Bush clearly considers himself a policy wonk.
Here’s what the NY Post had to say in March:
Allies and adversaries alike question whether Bush, a policy wonk who often talks about “big, hairy, audacious goals,” could stomach the hyper-partisanship and gridlock in Washington.
Followed by the NY Times in May:
Friends and former aides have variously described him as a “policy wonk,” an “ideas junkie” and, as Arthur C. Brooks, the president of the American Enterprise Institute, called him, “a top-drawer intellect.”
Jeb wasn’t in full-on wonk-mode Tuesday night, but he sometimes couldn’t help but to go on tangents related to whatever topic he was touching on at the moment.
Like this excerpt from a portion of Bush’s speech focusing on economic growth:
The power of compounding is hugely important in this conversation because politics should be about long-term things. So if we decided as a country, putting aside our partisan differences for one brief moment… and concluded that higher (economic) growth would work, think of the power of compounding so that in the tenth year if we were to grow at two-percent more than we’re growing today, compound out ten years, we would create a Germany of additional economic activity in that tenth year — $4.4 trillion of additional economic activity.
Admittedly Bush was speaking to a room full of business types who immediately understood what he was talking about when he said “compounding,” but that’s just one of numerous examples of Bush’s wonk-prone tangents that could come across to the average voter as either intelligent or unnecessarily professorial, depending on the topic and audience.
Conclusion:
Bush was in his element on Tuesday evening in Birmingham. It was his ideal crowd: business heavyweights who support the free market principles of limited government and lower taxes, as well as policies that are reviled by much of the conservative base, like comprehensive immigration reform and Common Core Education Standards.
To Bush’s credit, his message has been consistent, no matter what room he’s in. He’s not shy about the parts of his “platform” that will make it difficult for him to survive a Republican primary.
But if he does jump in, he would probably be smart to focus more on the aspirational rhetoric that touts his plan for economic growth.
His best phrase of the night was that he wants America to be a “right to rise society.” That perfectly captures the kind of uniting message he seems to be shooting for.
Follow Cliff on Twitter @Cliff_Sims
