Alabama House poised to vote on $150M tax hike the Senate will likely ignore (analysis)

Alabama State House (Photo: Creative Commons/Jay Williams)

MONTGOMERY, Ala. — Alabama House Republicans, many of whom were elected or re-elected last November on a limited government, anti-tax platform, are poised to vote on a $150 million tax increase proposal Tuesday afternoon.

Alabama’s General Fund budget shortfall, estimated to be roughly $250 million, has dominated the political conversation in Alabama so far this year. Gov. Robert Bentley has taken center stage with a $541 million tax increase package that has failed to gain traction in the Legislature. But with the 2015 Regular Legislative Session now two-thirds complete, GOP legislative leaders in both chambers are offering competing proposals.

House Leadership is proposing a plan that includes $150 million in tax and fee increases, along with cost-cutting measures and reforms. Senate leadership has floated a plan that would institute a state-sponsored lottery and expand casino gaming, but avoid tax increases completely.

Republicans in the Legislature have occasionally butted heads with the Bentley Administration, but the unprecedented level of cooperation between the House and Senate has been a hallmark of Republican control since 2010. However, the current budget debate is the first time Leaders in the two chambers have been publicly at odds over a high-profile issue.

The budget crisis has also fractured rank and file members of both chambers, making it difficult to build consensus behind any proposal. Some lawmakers favor tax increases, others support gambling expansions in various forms, and others are pushing structural reforms to Alabama’s dysfunctional budgeting structure. There is very limited overlap between each of those groups.

In spite of the divisions, House Republicans are being pushed toward voting for a $150 million tax increase on Tuesday, days after the package took two tries and some intense wrangling to pass out of committee.

The most unusual aspect of the politically treacherous vote may be that, whatever happens, the Senate will likely just ignore it. Senate Leaders have expressed a complete aversion to tax increases, meaning House members are risking the wrath of voters for a plan that appears to have no chance of even getting considered in the upper chamber. The decision to push forward would be out of character for an impressive House GOP political operation that has been defined by methodical planning and poll-tested legislation.

There is still a chance the legislation will get pulled before coming up for a vote. That will be the first thing to watch as lawmakers reconvene Tuesday at the Statehouse.