The seven-day average of new coronavirus cases has dropped in Alabama, even as the number of patients hospitalized for the virus remains high enough to put significant stress on healthcare providers.
When Yellowhammer News provided its last COVID-19 update one week ago, the state was averaging 1,593 new cases per day. In the seven days since, Alabama has averaged 1,416 per day, a 12% decrease.
Over that same stretch, 16.9% of the tests conducted on Alabamians have come back positive. That is down from a high of over 20%, but remains more than double the national average of 7.6% and is evidence for the virus remaining widely transmitted across the state.
The coronavirus data used by Yellowhammer is from databases BamaTracker and the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center.
On Thursday, 65 of the 67 counties in Alabama reported a new case of COVID-19.
Hospitals in Alabama have admitted 178 COVID-19 patients each day for the last week.
Though it is a positive sign that the number of patients being admitted has not increased, the seven-day average has hovered between 170 and 200 patients a day since the middle of July.
The death toll from COVID-19 in Alabama is now 1,654, with 60 more that are listed as “probable” but have not yet been confirmed by the Alabama Department of Public Health.
Calculating 1,654 against the state’s total confirmed case count of 93,402 reveals a death rate of 1.77%.
According to the data, 1,260, or 76%, of the Alabamians who have died from COVID-19 are over age 65.
Medical experts say that trends in hospitalizations generally lag trends in new cases by 10-14 days and deaths generally follow the trends in hospitalizations by two to four weeks.
In multiple media interviews, Alabama Hospital Association Director Don Williamson has said that less than 20% of the state’s ICU beds are available due to the high numbers of coronavirus patients.
Williamson also warned that most hospitals in Alabama were already understaffed when the pandemic began, and many healthcare workers are having to work far more shifts than is ideal.
He also expressed worry about increased case numbers that he feels will likely come in the fall.
“Crowds are simply an invitation to spread the disease, so as school regathers and as colleges regather that’s what everybody’s so concerned about,” Williamson told WSFA.
The decrease in cases Alabama is currently experiencing comes after Governor Kay Ivey instituted a statewide mask order on July 15. Alabama’s case count had been rising consistently until the mask order was put into place.
The mask order has been praised by UAB infectious disease expert Dr. Jeanne Marrazzo and Mobile County Health Officer Dr. Bert Eichold as having an effect on the case count.
However, State Health Officer Dr. Scott Harris was more cautious. He was asked by WPMI if the mask order was causing the decline in cases.
“I certainly hope so. I think it’s really difficult to prove that there’s a one-to-one correlation,” he replied.
“We are cautiously encouraged,” he added.
Henry Thornton is a staff writer for Yellowhammer News. You can contact him by email: [email protected] or on Twitter @HenryThornton95
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