“I don’t think John Boehner will be Speaker this time next year,” Rep. Mo Brooks, R-AL05, told The Hill on Tuesday.

That’s about as blunt as you’re going to hear it from a sitting Republican congressman.

Boehner has drawn the ire of many staunch conservatives since the Tea Party wave of 2010 swept Republicans into the majority and him into the speakership. But while many outside groups and grassroots conservatives have been vocal in their dissent, most Republican members of the House have been reluctant to voice their displeasure with Boehner publicly.

In late 2012, Boehner led the Republican Steering Committee to remove four staunch conservatives who had frequently opposed him from key committees. Reps. Justin Amash (R-Mich.) and Tim Huelskamp (R-Kansas) were banished from the House Budget Committee, and Reps. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) and Walter Jones (R-N.C.) lost their seats on the Financial Services Committee.

That, at least in part, led 12 Republicans to vote against Boehner for speaker when the 113th Congress was seated in January of 2013. He ultimately survived and was re-elected, but since then rumors of a coup have swirled non-stop.

Boehner has not been nearly as heavy-handed as many of his predecessors when it comes to delivering political retribution to members of his conference that defy him, but comments like Brooks’s are still unusual. Even when members of the majority party cast votes against the positions taken by their leadership — as many Republicans have done repeatedly over the last couple of years — they still don’t typically make disparaging remarks to the press.

Brooks expanded on his prediction that Boehner may not be around much longer by pointing to several instances in which the Speaker has “just not act(ed) like an individual who is doing the things you would need to do to get reelected Speaker of the House.”

“It might be the acquisition of the residency in Florida. It might be blaming the Republicans, his own caucus, for the shutdown,” Brooks explained. “It might be blaming his own caucus for the impasse over immigration. It might be the rather salty language he has used to describe some of his own Republican Conference members. But you add all these things, and that’s just not the kind of conduct you would expect from someone who is going to run for Speaker.”

One of the specific examples Brooks was likely alluding to took place last week when Boehner publicly poked fun at his Republican colleagues for not having the backbone to take on tough issues, especially so-called comprehensive immigration reform.

“Here’s the attitude: ‘Ohhhh, don’t make me do this! Ohhhh, this is too hard! You should hear ’em.’” Boehner said in a high-pitched voice (video below).

He later apologized, saying his comments were just good-natured ribbing. But the damage was done.

(More after the video)

“I did not think the Speaker’s comments were reflective of the concerns of the Republican Conference,” Brooks told The Hill. “They were counterproductive to the Republican Conference. I’m pleased that he apologized for having made these remarks, but he really shouldn’t have made them in the first place, because they’re untrue.”

Brooks, however, stopped short of saying he would oppose Boehner if a challenger emerges from inside the Republican Conference.

“I need to see who exactly is running to make a choice,” he said.

And therein lies the problem with every “Boehner’s on the way out” theory.

In spite of the public outcry from many conservatives, there just aren’t many realistic scenarios in which another Republican could unseat him. The one congressman who might actually have enough support inside the Republican Conference, Paul Ryan, is a Boehner ally who seems set on becoming chairman of the powerful House Ways & Means Committee.

Yellowhammer reached out to several senior Republican congressional staffers Tuesday evening to get their thoughts.

Here’s what two of them said on condition of anonymity so they could speak candidly:

Staffer 1 —

I can see how Brooks does not think he is wrong, but just today the Washington Post posted a story about Obama’s numbers being at an all-time low and potentially pulling Democrats into a tail spin.

If this is true, then the House will gain seats, and it is hard to dislodge a speaker that gains seats. Further, it is hard to kill the king until you have a king. Ryan says he does not want it.

Further, the Senate is likely to flip to Republican. Then the whole dynamic of Washington changes. This scenario would be one where Boehner wants to stay because it means that we would be able to force a “grand bargain” that includes the real drivers of debt: entitlement spending.

Should the Republican advantage fade and the status quo remains, then I can see Boehner leaving.

Also note that the real acid test of Boehners strength is whether he can muster the votes to pass the Appropriations bills. It is a sign of the functionality of his leadership.

Staffer 2 —

I think he’s in wait and see mode.

If we take the Senate like everyone thinks we will then I just can’t imagine him leaving.

On the other hand, if Harry Reid’s still in charge and killing everything we send across the Dome, then it is probably less appealing to him when he thinks about spending two more years dealing with the Chamber [of commerce] pulling him to the left and the Tea Party pulling him to the right and not being able to get anything passed into law no matter what he does. Maybe he thinks about leaving then.

But even then, who? I think Ryan wants to write tax policy, not deal with being Speaker. Maybe Cantor? I don’t know.

Boehner’s people are telling all of us privately he’s sticking around.

As for Rep. Brooks, he still thinks Boehner won’t run again. And even if he does, the north Alabama congressman says he’ll have a hard time getting the votes to keep the gavel.

“In my judgment, he’s not going to run for re-election as Speaker, but if he does, I’ll be mildly surprised if he can get the 218 votes that the Constitution requires.”

What do you think? Would you want to see what Boehner could do with a Republican-controlled Senate, or is it time for a leadership change no matter what? Let us know in the comment section below, or by tweeting @YHPolitics.

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