1. Byrne is within striking distance, but it ain’t over yet
Byrne is hovering right around 35 percent, which isn’t bad, but I’m sure they’d feel a little more comfortable if they’d crept up closer to 40. Remember, Byrne’s name recognition dwarfs the competition. There’s still reason for concern when a candidate with 80% name ID in a field of mostly unknowns can’t translate that familiarity into strong support.
But there’s no reason to panic.
As a matter of fact, the Byrne folks should be pretty pleased with where they’re sitting. According to several different polls Yellowhammer has seen, Byrne was the second choice of the majority of Fincher, Griffith and Hillyer voters.
Byrne remains the heavy favorite to be south Alabama’s next congressman.
2. Don’t underestimate Roy Moore & Co.
A runoff election with low turnout, which is what’s coming, is exactly what could send Dean Young to congress. Well, that and the overwhelming support of the evangelical base led by Chief Justice Roy Moore.
Young came out mid-campaign with a hard tack toward social issues. He challenged his primary opponents to sign a pledge saying they would take active steps as a congressman to oppose gay marriage, mainly to make the point that if social issues are your top priority, Young is your man.
Roy Moore has shown that he’s not concerned with any potential backlash from him being perceived as endorsing Young, even though he hasn’t explicitly said the word “endorse.” Moore’s support carries a lot of weight with the evangelical base in Alabama, and taking that lightly would be a mistake — just ask Moore’s Chief Justice primary opponents.
One other thing to consider with regard to Young’s focus on social issues is fundraising.
A lot of the big dollar conservative groups who get involved in Republican primaries — Club for Growth, for instance — are focused heavily on fiscal issues. Some of those groups routinely drop a quarter million dollars or more into a Republican primary to help elect the most fiscally conservative candidate available. That kind of money could be a game changer in this race. But Young’s focus on social issues could potentially prompt those groups to simply sit this election out.
3. The contrast of styles between Byrne and Young could not be more stark
Just watch these two ads:
Bradley Byrne — “Courage”
Dean Young — “Fighter”
10 seconds into Byrne’s ad, the music turns uplifting and starts highlighting his “successes” and “results.” The ad sort of says, “I’ve taken on challenges and pushed through to a brighter day. I plan to do the same in Congress.”
Young’s ad makes it clear that he’s ready to go into battle and D.C. is the war zone. He’s basically saying, “the boat is taking on water, and we might all go down with it, but by God I’m going to shoot every enemy I see until we go under.”
It’s an interesting contrast of styles, both of which could be effective. These stylistic differences will be a hallmark of the runoff.
4. Hillyer surged then came up short, but could he end up on The Hill anyway?
Hillyer put together a very impressive list of supporters — a who’s who of the national conservative movement, really. He also surged hard in the last few weeks and ended up raising the second most money of any primary candidate. He ran a campaign he and his supporters should be proud of.
So what’s next?
Here’s what Yellowhammer wrote about Hillyer and Byrne after our candidate forum back in early August:
Byrne and Hillyer both went out of their way to compliment each other and discuss their friendship during the forum. If either one of them makes a runoff without the other, I’d guess they’ll be making a strong push to garner an endorsement and a wave of supporters that could put them over the top.
As predicted, Hillyer immediately endorsed Byrne after he conceded last night.
Now for some fun speculation.
Hillyer was a Hill staffer in the 90s, the last time the federal government balanced the budget. He’s got an in-depth understanding of the legislative process in D.C., strong relationships with national conservative leaders, strong policy chops, and since he just got done running for Congress, he’s obviously up for a move to D.C.
So here’s a random prediction based on no inside knowledge: if Byrne wins, Hillyer will go with him as a senior member of his staff.
5. Fincher may have peeked too early, grassroots effort fizzled
Fincher began gaining momentum in August when GOPAC started dropping mail pieces and airing TV ads in his favor. Even though the campaign’s fundraising never really took flight, they went all-in on a grassroots strategy that seemed to be a smart play in a low-turnout election. The Forestry Association’s endorsement was also expected to be a real positive in rural areas.
When the smoke cleared, Fincher’s Congressional bid ended with a respectable but disappointing 15.6% of the vote.
GOPAC went dark the last three weeks of the campaign, and sources with knowledge of the campaign’s inner-workings expressed concerns early on election day that their voter identification efforts were not fully realized. Dean Young was also surprisingly strong in rural areas where the Forestry endorsement was expected to pump up Fincher.
Fincher’s a young and impressive conservative in the Alabama House. He’ll have another crack at Congress or other higher office if he wants it.
6. It’s probably gon’ get nasty, y’all
Here’s another excerpt from Yellowhammer’s post-candidate forum article written in early August:
Hillyer announced today that he will not run a single “negative ad” throughout the entire campaign, and called on his fellow candidates to do the same. Hillyer asked Dean Young to make that pledge in front of the crowd during last night’s event. “I don’t know what qualifies as a negative ad,” Young replied, “but I plan on telling the truth. I’ll pledge to always tell the truth.”
Translation: Dean Young ain’t afraid to go on the offensive.
There were some fairly strong negative tactics — mostly aimed at Chad Fincher — utilized right toward the end of the primary. Some of them were anonymous, some of them were from pro-Young third-party groups.
Now that Young has one opponent to focus on, the knives are most likely about to come out. And anyone who was around in 2010 knows Byrne’s not afraid to mix it up either.
Follow Cliff on Twitter @Cliff_Sims
