Bama professors’ 2014 predictions: slow growing economy, more Common Core fights

Every year since 1980, University of Alabama faculty members get together and compile a list of predictions for the new year — each professor offering predictions in their area of expertise.

This year’s list includes bold 2014 predictions about the spread of “augmented reality” technology and luxury hybrid plug-in cars, in addition to predictions that are perhaps more, well, predictable — like 3-D printers becoming more available and the continued decentralization of the film industry.

But I thought three of their predictions would be particularly interesting to Yellowhammer readers.

1. UA economist predicts a slow, but growing Alabama economy

Overall, Alabama’s economic growth should be relatively better in 2014 compared to 2013 according to Ahmad Ijaz, an economic analyst for The University of Alabama’s Culverhouse College of Commerce. Ijaz says the state’s inflation adjusted GDP, a key indicator of the state’s standard of living, is expected to grow by 2.0 to 2.5 percent in 2014. Transportation equipment manufacturing is predicted to be the fastest growing industry. Other sectors of the economy expected to see relatively strong growth include professional and business services (mainly administrative services, waste management, etc.), healthcare related services (primarily elderly care, social assistance etc.), and leisure and hospitality (food services, restaurants, etc.). Ijaz says the U.S. economy is forecasted to grow by around 2.5 percent in 2014, compared to 1.7 percent growth seen in 2013, while spending on durable goods will rise by 2.3 percent, just slightly above the 2.0 percent rate of growth in 2013.

2. UA economist also predicts the unemployment rate to remain high

Despite recent gains in payrolls in recent months, the unemployment rate is expected to remain relatively high in 2014 as more workers enter the labor force with a gradually improving economy. With consumer and business spending still remaining sluggish, most employers are expected to remain cautious about hiring new workers and making new investments. “The U.S. unemployment rate, currently at 7.3 percent will remain around 7.0 percent in 2014, maybe 6.9 percent,” says Ahmad Ijaz, economic analyst at The University of Alabama’s Culverhouse College of Commerce. “Alabama’s unemployment rate is already below 7.0 percent (6.3 percent), but if the economy begins to improve significantly, the unemployment rate will go up as more and more people who have given up on looking for a job enter the labor force. The U.S. unemployment rate, currently at 7.3 percent will remain around 7.0 percent in 2014, maybe 6.9 percent.”

3. Professor expects Common Core to continue being a hot topic

(Side note: reading this makes it clear that UA professors, at least these, <3 Common Core)

The Alabama College and Career Ready Standards — love them or hate them — have been the most divisive topics in K-12 education over the last year. Misinformation and misperceptions about the federal government’s involvement made the adoption of the new Alabama standards, which were derived from the Common Core Standards, a politicized tug-of-war. Don’t expect that aspect to change, at least not completely, in 2014. Dr. Jeremy Zelkowski, professor of math education at The University of Alabama, says the narrative has started to shift with the help of groups like Alabama GRIT (Graduate Ready. Impact Tomorrow), which, through K-12 teachers and higher-ed professors, has worked to clear mistruths about the standards. While a total repeal of the standards is highly unlikely, expect other efforts to halt progress, Zelkowski says. “There may be attempts to do what those who are against it have already been trying to do, like defunding costs for assessments in the state’s education budget. And if you don’t have the funds for that, you won’t have data. That political battle could continue to be there.”

If you’d like to read the UA experts’ entire list of 2014 “Educated Guesses,” you can check it out on the UA News site.

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