Polling results released by an Alabama-based, nationally respected data firm on Monday show that Lt. Governor Will Ainsworth (R-AL) is uniquely popular with Republican voters in the Yellowhammer State.
Cygnal, recognized as the nation’s most accurate polling firm during the 2018 midterm cycle, conducted a survey of 645 likely Alabama general election voters from October 21-23.
The advanced mixed-mode survey had a margin of error of ±3.86%, utilizing live agents calling cell phones and landlines, an online sample acquired via SMS and email invitations sent to known registered voters.
Included in the survey was a measurement of name identification and favorability ratings for Governor Kay Ivey, Ainsworth, Attorney General Steve Marshall, Secretary of State John Merrill and former Chief Justice Roy Moore.
Overall, 58.8% of respondents viewed Ivey favorably, compared to 29.8% unfavorably. She had 96.9% name ID in the survey.
Breaking that down, Ivey had a favorable image among 71% of Republicans, 59.2% of independents and 39.8% of Democrats; she was viewed unfavorably by 20.2% of Republicans, 29.4% of independents and 48.5% of Democrats. Among Republicans, Ivey’s favorable:unfavorable ratio was 3.51:1.
Ainsworth’s name ID (61.3%) is significantly lower than Ivey’s, with a lot of room to grow for Alabama’s first-term lieutenant governor. However, his favorability ratio among GOP voters is especially impressive.
The survey showed 21.3% of total respondents viewed Ainsworth favorably, and 11.8% held an unfavorable view of him.
Among Republicans, 30.3% reported a favorable view of Ainsworth, with only 5.4% viewing him unfavorably. That equated to a ratio of 5.61:1.
Ainsworth was viewed favorably by 21.6% of independents and 6.6% of Democrats; meanwhile, 12.1% of independents and 23.5% of Democrats held an unfavorable view of him.
A total of 28.2% of overall respondents had heard of Ainsworth but held no opinion, again indicating tremendous opportunity for improvement in his favorability numbers.
Next, Marshall was viewed favorably by 18.1% of respondents overall, compared to 10.9% unfavorably. He had 54.9% name ID.
Among Republicans, 22.4% held a favorable view of Marshall; that number was 20.3% and 9.7% for independents and Democrats, respectively. In comparison, 5.4% of Republicans, 10.9% of independents and 21.3% of Democrats viewed Marshall unfavorably. His GOP favorability ratio was 4.15:1.
Merrill had the lowest name ID of those measured, standing at 54.2%. Overall, 18.8% viewed Merrill favorably, and 9.7% held an unfavorable view of him.
Looking at Republicans, 22.6% viewed Merrill favorably, and 5% viewed him unfavorably. That amounted to a 4.52:1 ratio. Meanwhile, 19.8% of independents and 11.6% of Democrats held favorable views of Merrill; 11.8% of independents and 17% of Democrats viewed him unfavorably.
Last — and least popular among voters — was Moore, who had a name ID of 89.8% among overall respondents. The survey showed that 22.2% viewed him favorably, while a majority (50.7%) held an unfavorable view of Moore.
Moore finished fourth in the 2020 U.S. Senatorial GOP primary in Alabama, and his numbers show why. Among Republicans, 35.2% viewed him favorably, and 35.9% held an unfavorable view of the ex-judge (ratio of 0.98:1).
He is even deeper underwater outside of his own party. Moore was held in favorable standing by just 12.3% of independents, while 65% of the same demographic viewed him unfavorably. Among Democrats, 7.9% viewed him favorably, and 69.5% viewed him unfavorably.
These kinds of numbers also explain Moore’s 2017 special election loss to now-U.S. Senator Doug Jones (D-AL).
The Cygnal poll further showed Republican U.S. Senatorial nominee Tommy Tuberville with a 14-point lead over Jones in November 3’s general election contest.
“The 2017 special election was always sort of a fluke occurrence and Alabama voters are poised to send Doug Jones packing after a short stint in office, ” stated Brent Buchanan, Cygnal’s CEO and founder. “Republicans have a 17-point edge on the generic ballot in Alabama and with President Trump up for re-election, Jones doesn’t have a plausible pathway to victory.”
Read more about the survey here.
Sean Ross is the editor of Yellowhammer News. You can follow him on Twitter @sean_yhn
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