BY CLIFF SIMS & JEFF POOR
Less than five minutes after Yellowhammer broke the news that Congressman Jo Bonner would be resigning from congress, speculation was already running rampant about who might run for his seat. After reaching out to political insiders and potential candidates, here’s an early attempt at handicapping the field in AL-01.
Candidates are listed from most likely to be elected, on down. In an effort to pair down the list, any candidate who has already indicated they won’t be running has been left off.
Bradley Byrne
Early money is on Byrne. Although the first congressional seat has never been held by a candidate from Baldwin Co., Byrne has ties to Mobile. He can split the geographical spread.
He is probably the first name that popped into many Alabama politicos’ minds when they heard Bonner was planning to resign. The former state senator and head of Alabama’s two-year college system came very close to landing in the governor’s office in 2010. He placed first in the Republican primary, but fell short of reaching the 50 percent threshold needed to win.
Byrne has remained somewhat active in the political discourse since 2010 through his non-profit group, Reform Alabama.
Funniest line we got about Byrne while calling around to get feedback: “AEA doesn’t play in congressional races, then again they’d probably spend $2 million to keep Byrne from becoming dog catcher.”
Trip Pittman
As a powerful budget chairman in the state senate, Pittman has been a major player since Republicans took over the majority in 2010. The prospect of going from being one of the most powerful senators in a body of 35, to being a freshman congressman in a body of 435 will no doubt play a role in his decision making process.
Pittman has the ability to raise a lot of money from individual donors, as he has shown in his Senate races. He would be an appealing candidate to both business and grassroots conservatives.
“I’ll think about it and pray about it,” Pittman told Yellowhammer this afternoon. “I’ll consider it.”
Sam Cochran
Since winning the sheriff’s race handily back in 2006, Cochran has been the most solid Republican in Mobile County. Insiders in the first congressional district say it’s hard for them to imagine Cochran losing a race to a Baldwin County candidate with the strength candidates out of Mobile Co. have displayed over the last 48 years, with just three people filling the void.
Almost all of the folks on the ground in the District say this race will likely come down to Byrne and Cochran. If it does, it will be tough to bet against Mobile County (Cochran).
However, his position on gun rights could make him vulnerable.
Sandy Stimpson
The only reason Stimpson is not much higher on this list is because it is highly unlikely he will forego his campaign for mayor of Mobile and transition to a run for Congress. But he would immediately become the favorite if he did.
His campaign infrastructure is already in place, his name ID is high (and rising) and the financial resources he could tap into would outclass the competition.
[Update: Stimpson says he will not be running for Congress]
Fincher’s made a name for himself in Republican circles as the sponsor of the Accountability Act. Some say it might be a little early for Fincher to make a move for U.S. Congress, but he could be a sleeper.
Strongly considering a run to replace Congressman Jo Bonner. Congressman Bonner has been a great leader for south AL! nationaljournal.com/blogs/hotlineo…
— Chad Fincher (@RepChadFincher) May 23, 2013
Rep. Randy Davis
After receiving a lot of encouragement to run for mayor of Daphne last cycle, Davis ultimately decided to stay in the legislature. But sources close to Davis say he is very likely to announce he will be running for Congress this time around. If he and Sen. Pittman both run, they could potentially eat into each other’s base of support.
Hightower has been in the state senate for less than two months, but he’s already proven his talent as a campaigner against a heavily funded opponent. Sources close to Hightower indicated to Yellowhammer that he will consider a run for Congress. However, at this point it is probably unlikely he will run so soon after being elected to the senate.
Quin Hillyer
Hillyer announced his intention to run just hours after Bonner’s resignation. But the long-time semi-Washington, D.C. quasi-pundit and former staffer for Rep. Bob Livingston doesn’t seem to have earned a household moniker in the first district.
However, Hillyer has the ability to activate the University of Mobile base, much like Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee before, which is at least worth watching in a low-turnout election.
Connie Hudson
Well, what can you say? Mobile County Commissioner Hudson has clawed her way up from city councilwoman to county commissioner. She’s had her stumbles along the way, with a failed bid for state senate.
Field
In a tumultuous time of politics, someone could rise from the ashes and win the Republican nomination, or as the Democratic nominee/token opposition could pull off the upset.
If PPP decides to poll, then this becomes a likely position.
Tony Kennon
The Orange Beach mayor is a “fan favorite.” Just know the whole Steve Russo thing is what people think of when they put Orange Beach and politics together.
A Baldwin County commissioner who is an up-and-comer with little to lose – why not make a name for yourself? He’s indicated that he’s considering a run.
Uncle Henry
He’s been a fixture of Mobile for 30 years or so, and is included on this list because he’s had the best quote of the “campaign” so far:
I will run for Congress if I am allowed to serve “Joseph Mitchell” style: sit at home, send angry emails, get paid. @jeff_poor @alexpappas
— UncleHenry (@unclehenry) May 23, 2013
Likely outcome: A crowded primary will ultimately result in a run-off. While a Baldwin County candidate is tops in this contest early on, in the end a run-off between a Baldwin County candidate and a Mobile County candidate historically results in the Mobile County candidate as the victor.
What else is going on?
1. Jo Bonner to leave Congress, take job at Univ. of Alabama System
2. Hobby Lobby Continues Fight for Religious Liberty
3. AEA Plans to Hire Obama Political Operation for 2014
4. Bentley Signs Gun Bill into Law
5. Cap-and-Trade by Other Means
Don’t miss out! Subscribe today to have Alabama’s leading headlines delivered to your inbox.