“The chance of repealing Obamacare is zero,” U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-AL03, said bluntly to the Pell City Rotary Club earlier this week.
The reactions to Rogers’ statement were predictable. Emails coming in through Yellowhammer’s contact page from concerned conservatives decried his remarks as defeatism — or worse, complicity. Alabama’s liberal media seized the opportunity to declare Rogers the only honest Republican in the state. “Try getting that much honesty out of almost any Republican running for almost anything across Alabama,” they said. “On second thought, don’t try. You’d be wasting your time.”
In reality, Rogers was simply saying that there is zero chance of repealing ObamaCare with a Democrat-controlled Senate and the Organizer-in-Chief still occupying the White House. Enough Democrats could theoretically defect and override the president’s guaranteed veto, but there’s probably a better chance of Ted Cruz declaring his love for Karl Marx.
“As long as Obama is president and there are too many liberals in the Senate to override a veto, a repeal is not realistic,” Rogers told Yellowhammer today. “I am in favor of voting for one every day, and if we had 60 Shelbys and Sessions, it would be gone.”
So what are the realistic scenarios in which ObamaCare could be repealed at this point? Is there a chance that the entire law could be repealed? Is it better to approach it incrementally, rolling back some of the provisions that even Democrats can’t stomach and thereby rendering the law toothless or inoperable?
There are a ton of different scenarios we could consider, but let’s take a look at a few of the most likely:
Scenario 1: Republicans win the Senate in 2014
So it’s January 5, 2015 and Republican leadership is moving into their new digs in the Capitol as the majority party for the first time since 2007. On the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue, President Obama still has two more years left in office.
Obama is a lame duck with no ability to get anything done in Congress, but he still has his weapon of choice — a pen. He normally uses it to enact legally questionable executive orders, but in this case there is a 100 percent chance he will use it to veto any attempt to repeal his signature legislation.
It requires a two-thirds vote in both the House and the Senate to override a presidential veto. Even the rosiest projects show Republicans with a slim majority in the Senate, so unless a dozen or so Democrats jump on the repeal bandwagon, it simply won’t happen.
However, portions of the law could potentially be rolled back and escape a veto. Republicans would have to tread carefully, though, as some conservatives have expressed outrage over the piecemeal approach in the past.
RELATED: No state gains more than Alabama if Republicans take over US Senate
Scenario 2: Republicans win the White House in 2016, but lose the Senate
So it’s January 3, 2017 and President Elect Bush/Christie/Cruz/Huckabee/Jindal/Kasich/Paul/Perry/Rubio/Ryan/SESSIONS! is trying to get used to receiving his classified security briefings every morning. President Obama is spending his last few weeks in office taking Air Force 1 around the country to his favorite golf resorts and Michelle Obama has ditched the “Let’s Move” schtick and has resorted to binge eating ice cream in the White House kitchen. No one has seen or heard from Hillary Clinton since Nov. 8, 2016 after she was asked by a reporter what she was going to say in her concession speech and she replied, “what difference does it make?”
Unfortunately, the GOP had an uphill battle holding the Senate in 2016 because so many more Republicans were up for re-election (23) than Democrats (10). They weren’t successful and Harry Reid is back for one last hurrah.
Republicans immediately pass an ObamaCare repeal bill out of the House. But what happens in the Senate?
The newly elected Republican president would have the opportunity to use his bully pulpit to demand the Senate take up the legislation, and there is a good chance that public outcry will have reached a point that vulnerable Democrats are ready to play ball. But with the Senate Majority Leader controlling what bills actually come to the floor for a vote, this scenario leaves a lot of uncertainty as to what could happen.
Scenario 3: Republicans win the White House in 2016 and also hold the Senate
The anticipation is more than conservatives can stand. The newly elected president has said he wants an ObamaCare repeal bill on his desk before Easter and Congressional Republicans are being pulled in a thousand different directions by conservative activists, healthcare industry lobbyists, political consultants, talking heads and everyone else wanting to weigh in.
In all likelihood, Republicans would continue making sure insurance is available to individuals with pre-existing conditions and would probably allow young adults to stay on their parents’ health insurance. But ObamaCare as a whole is on the way out.
In order to avoid a filibuster in the Senate, which requires 60 votes to overcome, Republicans would have the option of using a legislative process called “budget reconciliation.” In short, the repeal of ObamaCare would be included in a budget resolution and the debate would be limited to twenty four hours, at which point the bill could pass with a simple majority vote.
With several conservative replacements to ObamaCare already circulating, it would then just be a matter of choosing which market-based solution had the broadest support.
Which scenario do you think is the most likely? Let us know in the comment section below or by tweeting @YHPolitics.
Follow Cliff on Twitter @Cliff_Sims
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